2004 President · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 508 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%
D+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (3.476) = 3.524
- Absolute miss = |3.524| = 3.524
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4619, race ID 778 (538 database).