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2004 Governor · IN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 51%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.49% · Republican 53.21%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.493 − 53.213 = -7.720
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-7.720) = -0.280
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.280| = 0.280

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4628, race ID 1366 (538 database).