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2004 President · WI

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.32%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.700 − 49.320 = 0.380
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.380) = -0.380
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.380| = 0.380

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4640, race ID 803 (538 database).