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2004 Governor · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 667 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.85% · Republican 50.83%

R+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.854 − 50.832 = -2.978
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-2.978) = -3.022
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.022| = 3.022

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4644, race ID 1367 (538 database).