2004 Senate · OK
WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 42%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%
R+11.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 42 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-11.520) = 8.520
- Absolute miss = |8.520| = 8.520
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4657, race ID 1639 (538 database).