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2004 House · NE-1

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 253 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 42%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.00% · Republican 54.23%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 42 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.996 − 54.233 = -11.237
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-11.237) = 7.237
  4. Absolute miss = |7.237| = 7.237

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4660, race ID 3390 (538 database).