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2004 House · NE-2

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 60%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.15% · Republican 61.10%

R+24.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 60 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.151 − 61.101 = -24.950
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-24.950) = -5.050
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.050| = 5.050

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4660, race ID 3391 (538 database).