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2004 House · NE-3

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 251 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 8% · Republican 86%

R+78.0

The certified result

Democrat 10.57% · Republican 87.45%

R+76.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 8 − 86 = -78.00
  2. Actual margin = 10.568 − 87.453 = -76.885
  3. Signed miss = -78.00 − (-76.885) = -1.115
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.115| = 1.115

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4660, race ID 3392 (538 database).