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2004 President · NE

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 1,007 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 61%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.68% · Republican 65.90%

R+33.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 61 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.682 − 65.899 = -33.217
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-33.217) = 4.216
  4. Absolute miss = |4.216| = 4.216

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4660, race ID 784 (538 database).