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2004 President · IL

Richard Day Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 828 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 42%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.82% · Republican 44.48%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.823 − 44.479 = 10.344
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.344) = -0.345
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.345| = 0.345

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4663, race ID 769 (538 database).