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2004 Governor · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 621 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.62% · Republican 42.88%

D+12.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.616 − 42.878 = 12.738
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (12.738) = -0.738
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.738| = 0.738

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4668, race ID 1369 (538 database).