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2004 House · WA-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 664 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.70% · Republican 51.50%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.701 − 51.500 = -4.799
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-4.799) = -1.201
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.201| = 1.201

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4669, race ID 3576 (538 database).