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2004 President · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 786 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.92% · Republican 46.24%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.923 − 46.239 = 6.684
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (6.684) = -2.685
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.685| = 2.685

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4674, race ID 786 (538 database).