2004 Senate · NH
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 52%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 33.72% · Republican 66.18%
R+32.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 52 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 33.717 − 66.178 = -32.461
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-32.461) = 6.461
- Absolute miss = |6.461| = 6.461
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4675, race ID 1634 (538 database).