2004 President · NH
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 41%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%
D+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (1.368) = 3.632
- Absolute miss = |3.632| = 3.632
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4675, race ID 785 (538 database).