2004 President · FL
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 48%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.007) = 2.006
- Absolute miss = |2.006| = 2.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4681, race ID 764 (538 database).