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2004 President · NH

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (1.368) = -4.368
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.368| = 4.368

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4683, race ID 785 (538 database).