2004 Senate · NV
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 32%
D+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.08% · Republican 35.14%
D+25.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 32 = 27.00
- Actual margin = 61.082 − 35.138 = 25.944
- Signed miss = 27.00 − (25.944) = 1.056
- Absolute miss = |1.056| = 1.056
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4686, race ID 1633 (538 database).