2004 Senate · CA
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 925 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 33%
D+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.71% · Republican 37.80%
D+19.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 33 = 22.00
- Actual margin = 57.708 − 37.798 = 19.910
- Signed miss = 22.00 − (19.910) = 2.090
- Absolute miss = |2.090| = 2.090
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4689, race ID 1618 (538 database).