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2004 Senate · CO

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.770) = -3.770
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.770| = 3.770

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4691, race ID 1619 (538 database).