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2004 President · GA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.38% · Republican 57.98%

R+16.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.375 − 57.975 = -16.600
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-16.600) = 6.600
  4. Absolute miss = |6.600| = 6.600

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4699, race ID 765 (538 database).