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2004 Governor · WV

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 24%

D+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.51% · Republican 34.00%

D+29.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 24 = 33.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.506 − 34.003 = 29.503
  3. Signed miss = 33.00 − (29.503) = 3.497
  4. Absolute miss = |3.497| = 3.497

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4704, race ID 1374 (538 database).