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2004 President · WV

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.20% · Republican 56.06%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.200 − 56.064 = -12.864
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-12.864) = 10.864
  4. Absolute miss = |10.864| = 10.864

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4704, race ID 804 (538 database).