Skip to content

2016 Senate · PA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42.6% · Republican 45.8%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.34% · Republican 48.77%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.6 − 45.8 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.341 − 48.774 = -1.433
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (-1.433) = -1.768
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.768| = 1.768

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47080, race ID 86 (538 database).