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2004 Senate · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 1,170 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 35%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.71% · Republican 37.80%

D+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 35 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.708 − 37.798 = 19.910
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (19.910) = -1.910
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.910| = 1.910

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4713, race ID 1618 (538 database).