2016 President · LA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 34% · Republican 54%
R+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.45% · Republican 58.09%
R+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 34 − 54 = -20.00
- Actual margin = 38.450 − 58.089 = -19.639
- Signed miss = -20.00 − (-19.639) = -0.361
- Absolute miss = |-0.361| = 0.361
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47155, race ID 620 (538 database).