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2016 President · GA

Abt Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 839 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 44%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.131) = 3.131
  4. Absolute miss = |3.131| = 3.131

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47158, race ID 612 (538 database).