Skip to content

2016 Senate · GA

Abt Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 839 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 47%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.03% · Republican 54.78%

R+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 47 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.033 − 54.784 = -13.751
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-13.751) = -1.249
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.249| = 1.249

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47158, race ID 88 (538 database).