2016 President · national
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 1,006 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%
D+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.182) = 4.819
- Absolute miss = |4.819| = 4.819
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47164, race ID 94 (538 database).