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2016 President · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 538 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.199) = 5.199
  4. Absolute miss = |5.199| = 5.199

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47166, race ID 611 (538 database).