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2016 Senate · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 538 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.2% · Republican 46.2%

even

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.2 − 46.2 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-7.666) = 7.666
  4. Absolute miss = |7.666| = 7.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47166, race ID 93 (538 database).