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2016 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 570 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 41.6% · Republican 51%

R+9.4

The certified result

Democrat 41.03% · Republican 54.78%

R+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.6 − 51 = -9.40
  2. Actual margin = 41.033 − 54.784 = -13.751
  3. Signed miss = -9.40 − (-13.751) = 4.351
  4. Absolute miss = |4.351| = 4.351

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47167, race ID 88 (538 database).