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2016 President · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 530 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29.6% · Republican 59.6%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.93% · Republican 65.32%

R+36.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29.6 − 59.6 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.932 − 65.323 = -36.391
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-36.391) = 6.391
  4. Absolute miss = |6.391| = 6.391

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47238, race ID 638 (538 database).