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2016 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 815 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.2% · Republican 41.1%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.2 − 41.1 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (2.182) = -2.081
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.081| = 2.081

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47240, race ID 94 (538 database).