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2016 Governor · NC

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.02% · Republican 48.80%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.016 − 48.798 = 0.218
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.218) = -1.218
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.218| = 1.218

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47254, race ID 52 (538 database).