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2016 President · NC

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-3.655) = 4.655
  4. Absolute miss = |4.655| = 4.655

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47254, race ID 629 (538 database).