2016 President · national
Lucid · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 2,615 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 38%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%
D+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 38 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.182) = 2.819
- Absolute miss = |2.819| = 2.819
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47258, race ID 94 (538 database).