2016 Senate · WA
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 34%
D+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.01% · Republican 40.99%
D+18.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 34 = 24.00
- Actual margin = 59.013 − 40.987 = 18.026
- Signed miss = 24.00 − (18.026) = 5.974
- Absolute miss = |5.974| = 5.974
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47316, race ID 72 (538 database).