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2016 President · NV

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 826 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.417) = 1.583
  4. Absolute miss = |1.583| = 1.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47317, race ID 635 (538 database).