2016 President · national
Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 42%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%
D+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.182) = -1.181
- Absolute miss = |-1.181| = 1.181
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47327, race ID 94 (538 database).