2016 Senate · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 27% · Republican 65%
R+38.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.17% · Republican 71.83%
R+43.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 27 − 65 = -38.00
- Actual margin = 28.172 − 71.828 = -43.656
- Signed miss = -38.00 − (-43.656) = 5.656
- Absolute miss = |5.656| = 5.656
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47343, race ID 79 (538 database).