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2016 President · SD

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,115 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 48%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.74% · Republican 61.53%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 48 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.737 − 61.531 = -29.794
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-29.794) = 18.793
  4. Absolute miss = |18.793| = 18.793

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47346, race ID 643 (538 database).