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2016 Senate · FL

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-7.666) = -2.334
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.334| = 2.334

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47469, race ID 93 (538 database).