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2016 President · UT

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 32%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 32 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-18.078) = 14.078
  4. Absolute miss = |14.078| = 14.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47525, race ID 646 (538 database).