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2016 Senate · UT

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 56%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.06% · Republican 68.15%

R+41.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 56 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.058 − 68.146 = -41.088
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-41.088) = 11.088
  4. Absolute miss = |11.088| = 11.088

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47525, race ID 73 (538 database).