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2016 Senate · NH

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.137) = -0.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.138| = 0.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47528, race ID 85 (538 database).