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2016 Senate · NH

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 768 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.137) = -1.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.138| = 1.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47539, race ID 85 (538 database).