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2004 President · WA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.82% · Republican 45.64%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.821 − 45.640 = 7.181
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.181) = 0.819
  4. Absolute miss = |0.819| = 0.819

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4754, race ID 802 (538 database).