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2016 President · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 959 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 45%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.23%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.235 − 52.235 = -9.000
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-9.000) = 5.999
  4. Absolute miss = |5.999| = 5.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47544, race ID 645 (538 database).