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2016 President · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,024 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 28%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 28 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (30.109) = -4.109
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.109| = 4.109

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47545, race ID 606 (538 database).